It’s been the 5th day that we are seeing a drop in Covid-19 daily cases. We are recorded at 14,345 cases today (Sep 20), the lowest for the month of August and September. Is it a sign that our pandemic is slowing down? According to the medical experts, it would not be appropriate to judge just based on the number of infected cases daily.
But, also looking at the positivity rate, deaths and BID ( Brought-in-death). For now, those number are still high and the idea of “Pandemic is slowing down” seems like an illusion.
We are seeing a drop in the daily cases below 20k for the past few days, where ICU bed occupancy rate at 76%. The R-naught for the country is 0.92. It has been below 1.00 since Sep 1. An R-naught of less than 1.00 suggests that the spread of Covid-19 is decelerating.
Professor Dr. Moy Foong Ming from the Centre for Epidemiology & Evidence-based Practice, Department of Social & Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Malaya shared in an interview, “The number of daily cases do not reflect the actual condition of the pandemic, while deaths and ICU occupancy rate are more significant indicator.”
She added,”The data showed is in totality, where ICU bed occupancy rate nationwide been reduced to 71%. But, Covid-19 is still widespread in the states of Sarawak, Johor, Penang & Sabah. For e.g. Perlis ICU occupancy rate already up to 100% and Johor up to 89%.
Dr. Wilson Pau Shu Cheng, Paediatrician expertise in Paediatric Infections Diseases said,” Most general hospitals and private hospitals are in Klang Valley. Thus, 50% of the ICU beds are in Klang Valley. Now we are seeing drop in cases in Klang Valley. Of course, the ICU occupancy rate and intubation rate going down too. Thus, whether the pandemic is slowing down can’t just based on the above data.”
There are a few factors contributing to the sign of an illusion where” Pandemic is slowing down”. Mainly because the official data showed is not that accurate. Thus, it can’t reflect the actual situation.
Now, government allowed public to do the test with self-test kit and reported the cases via MySejahtera App. But in actual, how many people reported the cases. We do not know and it’s hard for authority to trace the actual amount.
Moreover, all the ” backlog” cases due to the delay in reporting from Hospitals and certain government agencies. Thus, the number of infected cases and also deaths couldn’t reflect the actual situation of the pandemic.
Ministry of Health (MOH) targeting to achieve 80% of vaccination rate on Sep 21. Our health D-G, Dr. Noor. Hisham was hoping with 80% people vaccinated and projecting to see a daily cases below 1,000 by end December.
However, Dr. Moy think MOH might be too optimistic on their forecast. From what she is seeing now, we are still at averagely 17,000-18,000 cases daily. To be at 1,000 cases at the end of December is close to impossible. But, 10,000 daily cases will be more realistic.
Although, she do not agreed with Dr. Noor Hisham projection. But she think MOH wanted the public to be confident and to have faith that we will be able to overcome the pandemic.
Dr. Wilson also gave an example on Sarawak, where it’s one of the state with 80% vaccination rate but still it’s with the most number of infected cases for the past few days. He added,” Covid-19 vaccines protect people from the symptoms and more severe forms of the disease but are not designed to fully prevent them from being infected. So, if we have no self-discipline and flouting SOPs, we will be facing another round of major outbreak anytime.”
▼ Vaccination is just to protect you from the symptoms and maybe not even workable on certain mutated virus. Opened up the economy sectors or moving from pandemic to endemic is just an excuses as we are not able control the outbreak of the virus. We are juggling between lives and livelihood. Praying for everyone as life no take 2!
▼ Mainly because cases in Klang Valley dropped. But not so much on other states, just hoping the vaccination can reduced the number of deaths and severe cases.
▼ Self-discipline and health is the most important things during the pandemic.
Info via : Astro Hotspot | Malaysiakini
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